WTO Report Explores AI’s Transformative Impact on Global Trade

The WTO Secretariat has released a new report, “Trading with Intelligence: How AI Shapes and is Shaped by International Trade”, which explores the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on global trade. Launched during a WTO-hosted event attended by government officials, academics, and industry leaders, the report delves into trade-related policy considerations and the organization’s role in shaping AI-driven trade.

The report examines how AI can reduce trade costs, revolutionize services trade, boost AI-related goods and services, and reshape economies’ comparative advantages. It highlights growing fragmentation in AI regulation, a trend that could disproportionately affect micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Additionally, the report reviews domestic, regional, and international government initiatives aimed at promoting and regulating AI.

Key Insights from the Report:

• Trade Costs and Logistics: AI offers potential to streamline trade logistics, improve supply chain management, and automate regulatory compliance, such as customs clearance and border controls.
• Boosting Global Participation: By lowering trade barriers, AI can enable developing economies and small businesses to access international markets more effectively.
• Economic Scenarios: The report projects that universal AI adoption with high productivity growth could increase global real trade growth by nearly 14 percentage points by 2040. In contrast, uneven adoption might limit growth to just under 7 percentage points.
• Services Trade: Digitally delivered services are expected to grow significantly, with potential cumulative growth of 18 percentage points under optimistic AI adoption scenarios.

Challenges Highlighted: The report emphasizes risks of an AI divide between economies and businesses, data governance concerns, and the need to build trust in AI systems. Additionally, it calls for clarity on AI’s relationship with intellectual property (IP) rights.

In the report’s foreword, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala underscores the organization’s critical role:

“This report aims to stimulate a discussion on how the WTO can promote the development and deployment of AI while mitigating associated risks and addressing regulatory fragmentation. Key questions include: how can the WTO help ensure AI’s benefits are broadly shared, and how can its challenges be addressed in a globally coordinated manner?”

The findings suggest AI’s potential to level the playing field for lower-income economies, reducing trade costs and enabling wider participation in global markets. However, achieving these outcomes requires international collaboration to harmonize regulations and address disparities in AI adoption.

This report provides valuable insights into how AI could reshape trade and underscores the need for a globally coordinated approach to maximize benefits while minimizing risks.