Gartner Forecasts 85 Million Electric Vehicles on the Road by 2025

By the end of 2025, the global electric vehicle (EV) market is projected to see 85 million EVs—including cars, buses, vans, and heavy trucks—on the road, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc. This significant growth comes despite various challenges faced by the EV market recently. Jonathan Davenport, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, stated, “We anticipate the global number of EVs in use will reach 64 million units in 2024, marking a 33% increase in 2025.”

The surge in EV adoption is primarily driven by increased sales in China (58%) and Europe (24%), which together are expected to account for 82% of all EVs in use worldwide. The forecast for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) indicates nearly 62 million units in use by the end of 2025, reflecting a 35% increase from 2024. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to grow at a slightly slower pace, reaching 23 million units by 2025, up 28% from the previous year.

China’s dominance in EV ownership is projected to continue, significantly outpacing the combined total of the rest of the world through 2025 and likely into the next decade. Europe and North America are also anticipated to see steady growth, with these regions expected to account for 36% of global EVs in 2024. By 2025, Gartner estimates 49 million EVs will be on the road in China, compared to 20.6 million in Europe and 10.4 million in North America.

As EV sales rise, the challenge of raw material shortages remains a concern. Davenport emphasizes the importance of robust recycling efforts to capitalize on materials from spent batteries and manufacturing scrap. The European Union’s push for battery recycling could mitigate the need for additional mineral extraction. Davenport explains, “Spent batteries can be considered highly enriched ore due to the higher concentrations of rare metals they contain compared to natural ores.” If recovered at scale, these spent batteries could enhance the commercial viability of EVs by reducing battery prices and preventing unethical disposal practices.

For more insights, Gartner clients can read the report “Forecast: Electric Vehicle Shipments, Worldwide, 2023-2032.” Gartner for Information Technology Executives provides actionable, objective insights to CIOs and IT leaders, helping them drive digital transformation and foster business growth.