Technology will be decisive in helping China achieve carbon neutrality, but the country faces a major challenge in deploying low-carbon solutions quickly enough. This is according to a report released Monday by Tsinghua University’s Institute for Carbon Neutrality.

The report is titled Technology Perspective on China’s Carbon Neutrality Pathway. It examines more than 300 key technologies across six major categories.

These categories are zero-carbon electricity supply, zero-carbon heat and sustainable fuel supply, and end-use electrification. They also include low-carbon fuel and raw material substitution, energy efficiency improvement, and carbon capture, storage and negative emissions.

The report estimates that this technology system could contribute about 12.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions reductions by 2060. It says this would provide the technological foundation for meeting the national target.

Zero-carbon electricity production and consumption will be central to the transition. Zero-carbon power supply and end-use electrification together are expected to account for 71 percent of total emissions reductions.

Hard-to-abate sectors include complex industrial processes and long-distance transportation. In these areas, zero-carbon heat and sustainable fuels, low-carbon fuel and raw material substitution, and carbon capture, storage and negative emissions will jointly contribute about 23 percent of reductions.

However, the report notes that the technology system remains far from mature. Of the 121 technology subcategories assessed, about 25 percent have reached the mature application stage. Another 28 percent are in early application. Nearly half remain at the experimental or demonstration stage.

Development is also uneven across sectors. More than 93 percent of energy-efficiency technologies have reached mature or early application. In contrast, less than 20 percent of low-carbon fuel and raw material substitution technologies have reached these stages.

Costs are also expected to rise. The report projects that the average marginal abatement cost per metric ton of carbon dioxide will reach about 327 yuan ($49) by 2060. The figure was 287 yuan in 2035.

The report adds that research, development and deployment of carbon-neutral technologies will bring major industrial transformation and investment opportunities. Cumulative investment demand is expected to reach 180 trillion yuan by 2060.

Time is limited, the report stressed. The window from carbon peaking to the final target is only 30 years. If the relevant technologies cannot achieve breakthroughs soon, large-scale and rapid emissions reduction after the peak will face insufficient technology supply.

Investment is another concern. “In the early commercialization stage, the application cost of technologies is relatively high, and market investment offers low returns, long cycles, and great uncertainty,” the report said. It added that this has resulted in insufficient willingness among market players, creating a huge investment gap.

Closing that gap and speeding up deployment will be essential for China’s carbon neutrality ambitions.

Related post

View all